Easy growth strategy planner

Chapter 1: Introduction

In our rapidly changing times, where business processes are becoming increasingly complex and unpredictable, it is crucial to have tools that help us adapt to changes and forecast the future. This is where the concept of the "Metric Tree that Sees the Future" comes into play.

The name of this framework undoubtedly sounds ambitious. How can an ordinary metric tree predict the future? But if you delve into the essence and purpose of this tool, it becomes clear that its task is not to literally see what will happen, but to help us analyze data and make decisions based on likely future scenarios.

The essence of the "Metric Tree" lies in creating a structure that allows us to analyze various business metrics and their interrelationships to understand what changes might occur in the future and how we can respond to them in advance. It's similar to weather forecasting: we cannot precisely predict what will happen, but we can make inferences based on available data and reduce risks.

In this article, we will examine the concept of the "Metric Tree" in more detail, discuss its practical application, and learn how this tool can help us make more informed and successful decisions for our business.

Chapter 2: The Concept of the "Metric Tree that Sees the Future

Introduction to this concept makes us consider how important it is to have tools capable of predicting changes in our business. The name "Metric Tree that Sees the Future" may seem ambitious, but it reflects the essence of what we want to achieve: not just to see what our business processes look like now, but to understand how they might change in the future.

Forecasting the future in business is possible, especially with an experienced team capable of recognizing recurring patterns and trends. However, linking these forecasts with current metrics and timely adjusting the analysis is a much more complex task.

Although forecasts can be largely unreliable, having upper and lower bounds of fluctuations by the end of the 12th month will help us better understand possible scenarios and take appropriate measures in advance.

In the following sections, we will examine how the "Metric Tree" helps us analyze data and predict changes in business, as well as the advantages and opportunities it offers for managing our business processes.

Chapter 3: Deep Understanding of Long-Term Forecasts with the "Metric Tree that Sees the Future

Delving into the analysis of the "Metric Tree that Sees the Future," we see that it incorporates the ability to forecast long-term changes that may be invisible at the current moment but will manifest in the future.

Let's consider an example with a traffic acquisition channel. Suppose we are forecasting certain metrics in this channel, and initially, it shows positive dynamics because the platform offers us higher-quality leads during the learning process. However, as traffic increases, we can expect the quality of leads to decrease. This may lead to the need to stop working with this channel at a certain point in time.

It is important to understand that the deterioration in traffic quality will also affect the sales department's performance, but these changes will not happen immediately. We can configure our metrics so that this channel is excluded from our strategies in a few months.

On the other hand, we can also forecast the addition of new significant data at certain times. For example, upon reaching significant sales volumes, we might be given a discount, improving our economics and allowing us to invest more in advertising. However, this might only happen after several months.

Finally, after a certain period, we can expect our sales to become so high that our tax rate will increase, and profits will fall. These long-term forecasts enable us to strategically plan our business and adapt our actions according to future changes.

Chapter 4: Working on Six Layers with the "Metric Tree that Sees the Future"

The framework "Metric Tree that Sees the Future" offers the ability to work simultaneously on six layers: marketing, sales, product, finance, team, and investments. In real business, these six layers are significantly intertwined, and understanding their interconnections is crucial.

Often, teams start working with individual metrics of specific channels, for example, product metrics, focusing on increasing registration conversion or forecasting profit growth. However, if work is not forecasted across all six layers, significant improvements in one layer can be negated by deteriorations in others.

For instance, your team might achieve significant sales growth but simultaneously face financial problems due to ineffective marketing budget management. Or, product improvements might lead to increased conversion, but if the team is not ready to handle the increased volume of customers, this could lead to a negative user experience and, ultimately, customer loss.

Therefore, the "Metric Tree" proposes working simultaneously across all six layers. Thanks to integration with Google Sheets, each team can access their data and work independently, while the project manager can manage the settings of the entire project. Even if you have several thousand input data points, the "Metric Tree" can process them and predict future changes, helping your team make informed strategic decisions.

Chapter 5: Flexibility and Scalability of the "Metric Tree"

Let us recall that the framework "Metric Tree that Sees the Future" operates on six layers: marketing, sales, product, finance, team, and investments. Each of these layers is essential for understanding the business as a whole, and they are all closely intertwined.

However, what makes the "Metric Tree" truly powerful is its flexibility and scalability. At any given moment, whether it be three months, nine months, or a year from now, you can unfold any of these six layers and conduct additional analysis.

For example, if you notice changes in market conditions or internal team dynamics, you can make adjustments in any of the six layers and recalculate the financial impact. This allows you to understand the range of possible financial outcomes and make informed strategic decisions for your business.

The flexibility of the "Metric Tree" enables you to adapt to changing market conditions and respond swiftly to new challenges. It is a tool that grows and evolves with your business, providing a reliable foundation for decision-making and achieving your company's goals.

Chapter 6: Innovative Playground for Deep Understanding

On our website, you can find a Playground that allows you to gain a deeper understanding of the processes occurring in a typical business. Certainly, the settings will vary in each specific case, but the advantages of our tool lie in the very easy diagram design, based on Drag-and-Drop technology.

This innovative approach allows you to easily reveal and hide multiple child elements, maintaining the cleanliness and clarity of your project. Furthermore, our tool quickly adapts to new research and experiments.

For example, if you want to add new channels to your Metric Tree in three months, and in five months some channels will be closed, you can prepare such an experiment in a few minutes, including all cohort components and interconnections of metrics across all six layers.

In principle, this can also be done using Google Sheets. This is how I worked for many years until I developed the "Metric Tree that Sees the Future". However, creating just one new experiment in Google Sheets can take several days, making this process incredibly costly.

Using the gamified interface of the "Metric Tree that Sees the Future" framework, you can do this in a few minutes, just like in a game. Try it yourself and see the difference!